How big is the gap?
ABC estimated in January 2026 that the industry needs to attract about 349,000 new workers this year, rising to roughly 456,000 in 2027. Most of that demand comes from workers retiring, not from a surge in construction volume.
Earlier AGC research found that more than nine in ten firms had trouble finding qualified workers, and nearly half had projects delayed by labor shortages. Immigration policy adds uncertainty, because a meaningful share of the trades workforce is affected by it.
What it does to your estimate
A shortage shows up in three places: higher wage rates, lower productivity when crews are short or less experienced, and longer schedules that increase general conditions costs.
Pricing labor realistically
- Use your own crew productivity when you have it, not only published labor units.
- Price labor by task. A labor hour on overhead conduit is not the same as one on slab conduit.
- Adjust for height, access, occupied buildings and phasing, where productivity drops.
- Check wage determinations on public work. Prevailing wage changes the number completely.
- Revisit general conditions when the schedule stretches. Supervision and equipment are time-based.
Where outsourced estimating fits
Estimators are part of the shortage too. Many contractors now send overflow takeoffs out, so their in-house team can focus on strategy, sub coverage and bid-day decisions.